Other Publications
In addition to their 2024 book "Make Every Word Count - A Structured Approach to Build and Deliver High Impact Analysis" and their 2021 book "Intelligent Analysis: How to Defeat Uncertainty in High-Stakes Decisions," Jay and Steve have published the following:
Structured Risk Analysis, Measurement and Communication: Skills Which No Risk Manager Can Afford to Ignore (December 2025)
Today's complex, fast-changing and uncertain internal and external risks defy established methods of risk analysis and measurement. At the same time, AI is taking over risk aggregation, monitoring and reporting tasks. In this capstone article, published in the December 2025 issue of PRMIA's quarterly Intelligent Risk journal, Steve Lindo and Jay Grusin encourage risk managers whose primary skills are quantitative and technical to meet these challenges by upgrading their analytical and communication skills. The article provides a framework and examples of how skills based on techniques developed and in continuous use by the US intelligence services serve not only to measure and interpret complex and uncertain risks, but also to validate, interpret and communicate AI models’ output to decision-makers. Read or download the article.
Closing the Cybersecurity Skills Gap with Techniques Based on US Intelligence Service Methods (April 2025)
This article describes the skills gap which has developed in the cyber security industry due to the ongoing impact of AI, which has automated entry-level tasks such as threat detection and monitoring, and created demand for analytic, problem solving and communication skills which are needed to analyze threat patterns, collaborate with multiple job functions to evaluate vulnerabilities and develop mitigation strategies, and communicate these in clearly crafted, objective assessments to non-technical audiences. Intelligent Analysis, the authors’ structured approach to produce and deliver high-impact analytic products, is directly applicable to building this in-demand skill set. To demonstrate how, the article includes an application scenario drawn from their most recent book “Make Every Word Count – A Structured Approach to Build and Deliver High Impact Analytic Products”. In this scenario, an analytic team uses Intelligent Analysis methods to deliver a concise and objective analysis to support their senior managers’ decision whether the company can protect its intellectual property from cyber risk in a plant located outside the United States.
Read or download the article.
Silicon Valley Bank: What Can Be Learned From Its Collapse (October 2024)
This article examines the systemic fallout which resulted from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank through two different but complementary lenses: Root Cause Analysis and Key Assumptions Check. Together, these methods provide a detailed picture of the causes and derive fact-based conclusions intended to prevent repetition of the mistakes made by SVB’s executives and the US banking authorities. Read or download the article.
Identifying and Mitigating Human Biases Across AI Workflows (August 2024)
Despite claims to the contrary, identifying and mitigating the impact of human biases in AI applications has not kept pace with their rapid development and deployment in business and government activities. In this article, Steve and Jay describe some of the human bias vulnerabilities in the design, implementation and results of AI applications, then discuss how these biases can be identified and mitigated using methods based on US intelligence practices.
Read or download the article.
Managing Risks and Uncertainty from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (April 2022)
In this article, Steve Lindo and Jay Grusin examine the multi-dimensional risks and uncertainties confronting companies across all sectors as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They identify the different decision-making process necessary for such high-stakes and uncertain situations and use Intelligent Analysis to test a realistic bank decision about compliance with fast-moving Russia sanctions. Read or download the article,
Boeing 737-MAX: A Fatal Shift from Risk to Uncertainty (December 2021)
Using the method described in our book, this article examines the series of decisions made by Boeing leading up to and after the 737-MAX’s certification by the FAA, focusing on how Boeing’s implementation of its MCAS automated flight control software pushed the 737 upgrade from manageable risk into uncertainty and, eventually, into disaster. Read or download the article.
Target Canada—A Bad Case of Intelligence Risk Mis-Management (July 2018)
This article demonstrates the power of using structured analytic techniques in a business context by examining how they could have saved Target Corporation from losing U.S. $7.5 billion in sunk costs and over 18,000 Canadian jobs. Read or download the article.
Structured Risk Analysis, Measurement and Communication: Skills Which No Risk Manager Can Afford to Ignore (December 2025)
Today's complex, fast-changing and uncertain internal and external risks defy established methods of risk analysis and measurement. At the same time, AI is taking over risk aggregation, monitoring and reporting tasks. In this capstone article, published in the December 2025 issue of PRMIA's quarterly Intelligent Risk journal, Steve Lindo and Jay Grusin encourage risk managers whose primary skills are quantitative and technical to meet these challenges by upgrading their analytical and communication skills. The article provides a framework and examples of how skills based on techniques developed and in continuous use by the US intelligence services serve not only to measure and interpret complex and uncertain risks, but also to validate, interpret and communicate AI models’ output to decision-makers. Read or download the article.
Closing the Cybersecurity Skills Gap with Techniques Based on US Intelligence Service Methods (April 2025)
This article describes the skills gap which has developed in the cyber security industry due to the ongoing impact of AI, which has automated entry-level tasks such as threat detection and monitoring, and created demand for analytic, problem solving and communication skills which are needed to analyze threat patterns, collaborate with multiple job functions to evaluate vulnerabilities and develop mitigation strategies, and communicate these in clearly crafted, objective assessments to non-technical audiences. Intelligent Analysis, the authors’ structured approach to produce and deliver high-impact analytic products, is directly applicable to building this in-demand skill set. To demonstrate how, the article includes an application scenario drawn from their most recent book “Make Every Word Count – A Structured Approach to Build and Deliver High Impact Analytic Products”. In this scenario, an analytic team uses Intelligent Analysis methods to deliver a concise and objective analysis to support their senior managers’ decision whether the company can protect its intellectual property from cyber risk in a plant located outside the United States.
Read or download the article.
Silicon Valley Bank: What Can Be Learned From Its Collapse (October 2024)
This article examines the systemic fallout which resulted from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank through two different but complementary lenses: Root Cause Analysis and Key Assumptions Check. Together, these methods provide a detailed picture of the causes and derive fact-based conclusions intended to prevent repetition of the mistakes made by SVB’s executives and the US banking authorities. Read or download the article.
Identifying and Mitigating Human Biases Across AI Workflows (August 2024)
Despite claims to the contrary, identifying and mitigating the impact of human biases in AI applications has not kept pace with their rapid development and deployment in business and government activities. In this article, Steve and Jay describe some of the human bias vulnerabilities in the design, implementation and results of AI applications, then discuss how these biases can be identified and mitigated using methods based on US intelligence practices.
Read or download the article.
Managing Risks and Uncertainty from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (April 2022)
In this article, Steve Lindo and Jay Grusin examine the multi-dimensional risks and uncertainties confronting companies across all sectors as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They identify the different decision-making process necessary for such high-stakes and uncertain situations and use Intelligent Analysis to test a realistic bank decision about compliance with fast-moving Russia sanctions. Read or download the article,
Boeing 737-MAX: A Fatal Shift from Risk to Uncertainty (December 2021)
Using the method described in our book, this article examines the series of decisions made by Boeing leading up to and after the 737-MAX’s certification by the FAA, focusing on how Boeing’s implementation of its MCAS automated flight control software pushed the 737 upgrade from manageable risk into uncertainty and, eventually, into disaster. Read or download the article.
Target Canada—A Bad Case of Intelligence Risk Mis-Management (July 2018)
This article demonstrates the power of using structured analytic techniques in a business context by examining how they could have saved Target Corporation from losing U.S. $7.5 billion in sunk costs and over 18,000 Canadian jobs. Read or download the article.