Other Publications
In addition to the 2021 book "Intelligent Analysis: How to Defeat Uncertainty in High-Stakes Decisions," Jay and Steve have published the following:
Silicon Valley Bank – Doomed by Blind Spot Denial and Frozen Assumptions (November 2023)
These slides were presented by Steve Lindo at RiskMinds International in London in November 2023. They show how US Banking Regulators’ confident assumptions in 2018, when Congress relaxed regulatory requirements for banks with assets <= $100 Billion, didn’t change during the ensuing five years, while systemic issues such as soaring interest rates, digital banking and unhealthy deposit concentrations significantly increased. As a result, in spite of the Regulators' full knowledge of Silicon Valley Bank’s headlong growth, irresponsible management and risk management failings, they failed to take preventive measures which would have avoided SVB’s March 10, 2023 insolvency and the resulting shocks to the global banking system. Read or download the slides.
Managing Risks and Uncertainty from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (April 2022)
In this article, Steve Lindo and Jay Grusin examine the multi-dimensional risks and uncertainties confronting companies across all sectors as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They identify the different decision-making process necessary for such high-stakes and uncertain situations and use Intelligent Analysis to test a realistic bank decision about compliance with fast-moving Russia sanctions. Read or download the article,
"Boeing 737-MAX: A Fatal Shift from Risk to Uncertainty" (December 2021)
Using the method described in our book, this article examines the series of decisions made by Boeing leading up to and after the 737-MAX’s certification by the FAA, focusing on how Boeing’s implementation of its MCAS automated flight control software pushed the 737 upgrade from manageable risk into uncertainty and, eventually, into disaster. Read or download the article.
"Target Canada—A Bad Case of Intelligence Risk Mis-Management" (July 2018)
This article demonstrates the power of using structured analytic techniques in a business context by examining how they could have saved Target Corporation from losing U.S. $7.5 billion in sunk costs and over 18,000 Canadian jobs. Download the article.
Silicon Valley Bank – Doomed by Blind Spot Denial and Frozen Assumptions (November 2023)
These slides were presented by Steve Lindo at RiskMinds International in London in November 2023. They show how US Banking Regulators’ confident assumptions in 2018, when Congress relaxed regulatory requirements for banks with assets <= $100 Billion, didn’t change during the ensuing five years, while systemic issues such as soaring interest rates, digital banking and unhealthy deposit concentrations significantly increased. As a result, in spite of the Regulators' full knowledge of Silicon Valley Bank’s headlong growth, irresponsible management and risk management failings, they failed to take preventive measures which would have avoided SVB’s March 10, 2023 insolvency and the resulting shocks to the global banking system. Read or download the slides.
Managing Risks and Uncertainty from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (April 2022)
In this article, Steve Lindo and Jay Grusin examine the multi-dimensional risks and uncertainties confronting companies across all sectors as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They identify the different decision-making process necessary for such high-stakes and uncertain situations and use Intelligent Analysis to test a realistic bank decision about compliance with fast-moving Russia sanctions. Read or download the article,
"Boeing 737-MAX: A Fatal Shift from Risk to Uncertainty" (December 2021)
Using the method described in our book, this article examines the series of decisions made by Boeing leading up to and after the 737-MAX’s certification by the FAA, focusing on how Boeing’s implementation of its MCAS automated flight control software pushed the 737 upgrade from manageable risk into uncertainty and, eventually, into disaster. Read or download the article.
"Target Canada—A Bad Case of Intelligence Risk Mis-Management" (July 2018)
This article demonstrates the power of using structured analytic techniques in a business context by examining how they could have saved Target Corporation from losing U.S. $7.5 billion in sunk costs and over 18,000 Canadian jobs. Download the article.