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How to Defeat Uncertainty in High-Stakes DecisionsMaking good decisions involving high stakes and uncertainty requires a significantly different mindset from an organization's default decision-making process, which is typically dictated by culture, hierarchy, personalities, data, and haste. The methods described in this book, honed over decades by the U.S. Intelligence Services, emphasize discipline, objectivity, diversity, reason, and transparency. Most importantly, they don't interfere with the way your organization makes its high-stakes decisions. Instead, they add a protective layer of analytics that either validates a good decision or exposes its flaws that could lead to catastrophic consequences. Regardless of your organization's risk tolerance, these methods will show you where a high-stakes decision you have to make lies on the uncertainty spectrum and what, if any, actions you can take to nudge the needle to the left.
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"This book offer private-sector analysts a step-by-step approach to producing assessments that support near- and longer-term strategic goals." — Michael Morell, former acting and deputy director of the CIA
"'Intelligent Analysis' provides practical tools and proven techniques to produce objective, evidence-based analysis. It is a much needed 'how to' guide for critical thinking to support decision making under uncertainty." — Roger Chen, Head of Enterprise Risk Analytics and Reporting at New York Life
Intelligent Risk Management LLC
Dr. Jay Grusin | Steve Lindo