Who we are
Dr. Jay Grusin
Dr. Jay Grusin has served as an intelligence analyst and manager and teacher of analysts for over 40 years. In 2008, he completed a 29-plus year career at the Central Intelligence Agency, and since then has provided management and intelligence training across the private and public sectors. He also serves on the Advisory Board of the Michael J. Morell Center for Intelligence and Security Studies at the University of Akron. Dr. Grusin is a member of the CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service and received the Agency’s Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal in recognition of his contributions, which include helping create and deliver an analytic training course that redefined how intelligence analysis would be taught at the CIA and led the development/delivery of the first sequenced management/ leadership curriculum. Beginning in 2018, Dr. Grusin teamed with Steve Lindo to establish Intelligent Risk Management LLC. Together they developed and delivered a series of workshops for private sector clients based on how to apply these same tools and processes, collectively called Intelligent Analysis, to help identify and manage risk and uncertainty. They have since published two books describing and explaining how to use Intelligent Analysis, "Intelligent Analysis: How to Defeat Uncertainty in High-Stakes Decisions" (*2021) and "Make Every Word Count – A Structured Approach to Build and Deliver High Impact Analytic Products" (2024). Dr. Grusin earned his MA and PhD at the University of Arizona. He and his wife, Sarah, live outside of Ann Arbor, MI.
Contact Information: [email protected] | 571-215-6552
Dr. Jay Grusin has served as an intelligence analyst and manager and teacher of analysts for over 40 years. In 2008, he completed a 29-plus year career at the Central Intelligence Agency, and since then has provided management and intelligence training across the private and public sectors. He also serves on the Advisory Board of the Michael J. Morell Center for Intelligence and Security Studies at the University of Akron. Dr. Grusin is a member of the CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service and received the Agency’s Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal in recognition of his contributions, which include helping create and deliver an analytic training course that redefined how intelligence analysis would be taught at the CIA and led the development/delivery of the first sequenced management/ leadership curriculum. Beginning in 2018, Dr. Grusin teamed with Steve Lindo to establish Intelligent Risk Management LLC. Together they developed and delivered a series of workshops for private sector clients based on how to apply these same tools and processes, collectively called Intelligent Analysis, to help identify and manage risk and uncertainty. They have since published two books describing and explaining how to use Intelligent Analysis, "Intelligent Analysis: How to Defeat Uncertainty in High-Stakes Decisions" (*2021) and "Make Every Word Count – A Structured Approach to Build and Deliver High Impact Analytic Products" (2024). Dr. Grusin earned his MA and PhD at the University of Arizona. He and his wife, Sarah, live outside of Ann Arbor, MI.
Contact Information: [email protected] | 571-215-6552
Steve Lindo
Steve Lindo is a financial risk manager with over 30 years’ experience managing risks in banking, asset management and insurance. He is Co-Principal of Intelligent Risk Management LLC, an executive education and advisory partnership which uses analytical methods pioneered by the US intelligence services to enhance decision-making by enterprises across all industries. Since 2014 he has been a part-time lecturer in Columbia University’s Master of Science in Enterprise Risk Management program. Mr. Lindo’s earlier career includes executive positions with Fifth Third Bancorp, GMAC Financial Services (now Ally Financial), Cargill Financial Services, First National Bank of Chicago (now part of JPMorgan Chase) and Lloyds Bank, in the US, UK, Spain and Brazil. In 2010, Mr. Lindo completed a two‐year engagement as Executive Director of PRMIA – The Professional Risk Managers’ International Association, a non‐profit member organization with over 75,000 members in 198 countries. Mr. Lindo is a regular presenter at conferences, webinar host and author of risk management articles and case studies. He has a BA and MA from Oxford University and speaks fluent French, German, Spanish and Portuguese. He and his wife Marcie live near their grandchildren in Columbus, Ohio.
Contact Information: [email protected] | 612-865-6647
Steve Lindo is a financial risk manager with over 30 years’ experience managing risks in banking, asset management and insurance. He is Co-Principal of Intelligent Risk Management LLC, an executive education and advisory partnership which uses analytical methods pioneered by the US intelligence services to enhance decision-making by enterprises across all industries. Since 2014 he has been a part-time lecturer in Columbia University’s Master of Science in Enterprise Risk Management program. Mr. Lindo’s earlier career includes executive positions with Fifth Third Bancorp, GMAC Financial Services (now Ally Financial), Cargill Financial Services, First National Bank of Chicago (now part of JPMorgan Chase) and Lloyds Bank, in the US, UK, Spain and Brazil. In 2010, Mr. Lindo completed a two‐year engagement as Executive Director of PRMIA – The Professional Risk Managers’ International Association, a non‐profit member organization with over 75,000 members in 198 countries. Mr. Lindo is a regular presenter at conferences, webinar host and author of risk management articles and case studies. He has a BA and MA from Oxford University and speaks fluent French, German, Spanish and Portuguese. He and his wife Marcie live near their grandchildren in Columbus, Ohio.
Contact Information: [email protected] | 612-865-6647
What we do
We show you how to test your judgments in high-stakes situations. Whatever your decision-making process, we show you how to overcome interference from biases, emotions and organizational influence in your decision analysis. Our methods use time-tested, structured discussions which are indifferent to your organization’s culture, objectives or industry sector.
Traditional v Structured Decision Analysis
Traditional decision analysis methods are error-prone in complex and uncertain situations because of intelligence risk, which comprises the information overload, inconclusive data, cognitive biases, emotions, organizational influence and intense time pressure involved in high-stakes business decisions.
The deficiency of traditional decision analysis methods in such situations is demonstrated by the long list of well-publicized business debacles in both financial and non-financial sectors, and stems from the following reasons:
Typical examples of dysfunctional decision analysis include:
By contrast, in the world of government intelligence analysis, disciplined decision analysis processes have been developed and field-tested over more than 20 years, in the course of managing the continuous and ever-changing stream of high-stakes situations involving money, lives, property and influence.
Steve Lindo and Jay Grusin have teamed up to establish these intelligent risk management practices in the business sector. Combining more than half a century of experience in the government and private sectors, Steve and Jay bridge the gap between the decision analysis practices in both worlds.
Traditional v Structured Decision Analysis
Traditional decision analysis methods are error-prone in complex and uncertain situations because of intelligence risk, which comprises the information overload, inconclusive data, cognitive biases, emotions, organizational influence and intense time pressure involved in high-stakes business decisions.
The deficiency of traditional decision analysis methods in such situations is demonstrated by the long list of well-publicized business debacles in both financial and non-financial sectors, and stems from the following reasons:
- High-stakes decisions typically occur infrequently, meaning that participants have few opportunities to hone their decision analysis skills in complex and uncertain situations.
- The large amounts of data, expert projections and qualitative risk analysis which are contributed by multiple departments, functions and stakeholders in such situations present an enormous challenge to reconcile in a short timeframe.
- Organizational biases and emotions frequently interfere with objectivity in the process of analyzing complex and uncertain situations.
Typical examples of dysfunctional decision analysis include:
- "Here’s what I (the CEO) want to do, speak up anybody who thinks it’s a bad idea."
- "The accountants have already run the numbers, so all you have to do is vote yes or no".
- "We’ve already run this by our lawyers and they’re fine with it."
- "You can ask as many questions as you like, but we have to make a yes/no decision by the end of this meeting."
By contrast, in the world of government intelligence analysis, disciplined decision analysis processes have been developed and field-tested over more than 20 years, in the course of managing the continuous and ever-changing stream of high-stakes situations involving money, lives, property and influence.
Steve Lindo and Jay Grusin have teamed up to establish these intelligent risk management practices in the business sector. Combining more than half a century of experience in the government and private sectors, Steve and Jay bridge the gap between the decision analysis practices in both worlds.